A cumulative prospect theory approach to passengers behavior modeling: Waiting time paradox revisited

Common travel-choice models are based on the assumption that travelers ' behavior is rational. However, using normative models to describe individual choice was criticized by behavioral scientists, and recently also by transportation researchers. In this paper, aspects of passengers ' bounded-rationality behavior are studied. Specifically, we focus on the decision-making process of the individual passenger who has to select a bus line. The effect of information format on individual choice is studied by the examination of subjects' preferences of bus lines. Questionnaires presented two different formats of alternative bus lines information, buses' headway intervals, and by waiting time. The results show evidence to size-biased sampling (known as the waiting time paradox) when subjects are provided with information about buses' headway intervals. By formulation and interpretation of subjects' preferences with the framework of Cumulative Prospect Theory, the value of passengers' reference point may be derived. It was found that such a reference point is much lower than the experienced waiting times reported by subjects. This better understanding of passengers' behavior may improve the design of public transportation timetables and advanced travelers information systems (ATIS)