Investigation of Emergency Automation Failures Influence on the Power System Accident Risk

To improve the power system reliability, it is necessary to organize efficient management. Effective management requires an integrated approach which takes into account the probabilistic nature of failures, stochasticity of modes, possible scenarios of the accident and its consequences. Technical risk most fully covers all the factors. The paper presents the fuzzy-statistical method for assessing the accident probability and risk in the power system. The proposed method takes into account the operation of system emergency automation devices and their operable or inoperable condition. Modeling of the 14-node test circuit of the power system was performed using the developed method. Probability of dynamic stability loss on the time interval was estimated for this circuit. The results have confirmed the adequacy of the developed fuzzy-statistical method and shown the need to consider the operation and condition of system emergency automation to obtain reliable results