Assessing the increase in wildfire activity with climate change in Southern France

According to climate projections, global warming is associated with increasing temperatures and dry spells in some parts of the world, especially the Mediterranean area. However, it is quite challenging for the scientific community to assess the intensity of these changes, because (i) the trend relies on the greenhouse gases (GHG) emission scenario and (ii) fire occurrence depends on multiple factors (including climate, but not only). A proper assessment of the trend in terms of fire activity still lacks, especially for the French territory. Our study refines traditional approaches of fire risk projection under climate change by translating a danger index into potential fire activity (fire occurrence above 1 ha and burnt area)