On the capacity of great powers to influence nuclear proliferation

Nuclear proliferation is an important contemporary security issue, yet is a different problem than the one faced during the Cold War. The diffusion of nuclear weapons beyond the great powers invites a new analysis of structural effects on proliferation outcomes. The second-tier states—those for which the nuclear debate is currently playing out—do not interact in a strictly-anarchic system, but in a system conditioned by the preferences and behaviors of the tier of great-power states. The great powers' capacity (or lack thereof) to make concessions, enforce commitments, or otherwise alter the expected consequences of second-tier behavior changes the rational decision making process for these states. This dissertation examines how the structural differences experienced by second-tier states affect the problem of nuclear proliferation, providing insights for the extent of great-power ability to influence future diffusion