Insights evolution of the Eastern Iberian-Ibiza endemism Carduncellus dianius (Compositae) linking molecular and ecological niche modeling data

Trabajo presentado en el XIX International Botanical Congress (IBC 2017), celebrado en Shenzhen (China) del 23 al 29 de julio de 2017Long-term persistence of plant populations through multiple geological and paleoclimatic events has made the Mediterranean Basin a geographical center of species richness and endemism. Carduncellus dianius is a good example of a typical Mediterranean narrow endemic species, being restricted to less than 20 populations; about half of these populations are located in the mainland (in the Spanish Province of Alicante, eastern Iberian Peninsula) and half are located in western Ibiza Island (Balearic Islands). We combined molecular techniques with ecological niche modeling (ENM) methods to get insights into the species past evolutionary history, its current levels and distribution of genetic variation, and its potential future distribution. To obtain genetic information, 79 and 143 specimens were analyzed with three cpDNA regions and AFLP markers, respectively. Results from phylogenetic analyses using cpDNA data revealed that this species might have originated in the continental region. The colonization of Ibiza Island could have occurred by a single long-distance dispersal event, with a subsequent back-colonization from the island to the continent. During the Last Glacial Maximum (~20 kya) Ibiza presented higher habitat suitability for the species than the mainland, where harsher environmental conditions could have produced a genetic bottleneck. Reverse results were found in future projections of potential distribution in 2070, that show a considerable loss of suitable habitat in Ibiza, where the effects of climate change could, thus, affect seriously the conservation of island populations.Peer reviewe