The Impact of Climate Changes On Hydrology and Water Resources In the Andean Páramos-Colombia

Páramo ecosystems are unique alpine grasslands found at high altitudes (2000-5000 m a.s.l.) in the Andean mountain range. While they provide a wide range of important ecosystem services, such as organic carbon sinks, protect endemic species, provide agriculture services, act as recreation sites etc., their perhaps most important service is found in their ability to regulate water flows. The unique volcanic soil properties and endemic plant life that resides in these areas have an exceptional ability to capture, regulate and store water. Colombia has the world’s largest stretch of páramo areas, which supply almost the entire country with clean tap water without active filtration initiatives. Currently there are around seven million people living in Bogotá, the main capital. Northeast of the capital, in the Eastern Range of the Colombian Andes, the Chingaza National Park (CNP) is located. In this park, there are approximately 645 km² of páramo ecosystems, which supplies around 80 % of all the tap water used in Bogotá. However, with an expanding population growth and urbanisation, the demand for water is increasing rapidly. The long-lasting conflict within the country has prevented the exploitation of the economical goods belonging to the páramo ecosystems. Recent peace agreements have opened up for international trade, tourism and an expanding industry. However, the lack of regulations, which protect the páramo ecosystems, have now resulted in an increasing pressure of these systems. As such, sustainable adaptation plans are required across multiple stakeholder levels in order to prevent further deterioration of the páramos. Moreover, the anthropogenic climate changes are posing a threat to these fragile environments. An increasing temperature and changing rainfall patterns are expected to affect the hydroclimatic conditions, especially on high altitudes where these ecosystems are located. Nevertheless, the internal and external processes governing these ecosystems are highly complex and the knowledge gaps are many. One reason for this is that the remote and inaccessible locations results in generally scarcely distributed networks of monitoring stations. In this study, CNP was chosen due to the relatively well-monitored network of stations. Long-term temperature, precipitation and runoff data was analysed to identify the hydroclimatic conditions in the park. Regional downscaled precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, covering the period 2041-2065 were obtained from the WorldClim 1.4 database. Interpolated historical observations for the same parameters but during the period 1960-1990, covering CNP, were derived from the same database. These interpolated historical parameters were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries for where a páramo ecosystem can thrive during future RCP-scenarios. Historically, the hydroclimatic conditions in CNP has been characterised by a high input of water from precipitation, low evapotranspiration due to low temperatures and clouds presence, and a stable and abundant runoff. However, the results from this study suggest increasing temperature and precipitation boundaries during both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 compared to historical interpolated data. Furthermore, there is a tendency towards prolonged and amplified seasons, with wetter wet season and drier dry seasons. When mapping suitable páramo environments under future RCP-scenarios, there is a tendency towards decreasing suitable páramo areas, especially during dry season. However, the findings in this report are merely based on temperature and precipitation parameters. Other forcing factors (ENSO, cloud cover, fog, occult precipitation, land use etc.) that also influence these environments and the ability to adapt to new hydroclimatic conditions, were not investigated. In order to prevent further loss of these environments and their associated ecosystem services, it is recommended to apply modern techniques, such as remote sensing in combination with traditional fieldwork, point samples and hydrological models in future studies