The impact of spatial planning on the structure of South African cities since 1994

Thesis (DPhil)--Stellenbosch University 2019.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South African cities have been shaped by colonial and post-1948 apartheid city policies resulting in what is commonly referred to as ‘apartheid cities’. The vision of urban spatial transformation supported by goals such as compact urban form, increased population densities, and a greater mix of land uses hence emerged as key elements of the spatial planning doctrine after the transition into democracy in 1994. The aim of this research is to establish the influence of spatial planning and spatial plans on urban structure in South Africa since 1994 through empirical analysis across a range of metropolitan and intermediate sized cities. A comprehensive methodology for evaluating the influence of spatial planning processes and spatial plans is developed based on an analysis of alternative paradigms of procedural planning theory. A framework to incorporate the spatial planning evaluation methodology into the existing prescribed SDF preparation process is provided. Elements of this methodology are applied to evaluate the evolving spatial structure of eight South African cities since 1994. The results established modest increases in net population densities since 1994, and only marginal changes in the overall levels of land-use mix. The density increases occurred mostly at decentralised suburban locations but, in the case of the four largest metropolitan cities analysed, also in and around the traditional CBD areas. The results also led to the identification of five different variants of the double-linear density model to describe urban built-up space of cities. The influence of spatial plans on population density and land use mix was found to be limited, but the influence on the location of new economic activities over the study period was significant. The results of the plan quality assessment indicated that spatial plans require substantial improvement in the areas of spatial analysis of the urban economic space, quantifying infrastructure and capital investment, translating broad sustainability principles into quantifiable sustainability indicators and targets, focusing more specific attention on the informal sector, and applying innovative spatial statistical analysis techniques in the preparation and evaluation of spatial plans. Spatial plans to drive ‘reconfiguration’ will require consistent intervention at various scales and across different timeframes. Spatial plans and policies based on a limited number of principles, rather than complicated ‘integrated’ plans, are most likely to produce persistent and systematic outcomes aligned with the spatial planning vision. The precondition for such a planning approach is a rigorous process of ongoing evaluation and feedback to assess the effect of the established planning principles. Improving the influence of urban spatial planning will require a shift in focus from planning activities primarily aimed at the plan preparation phase to spatial plan evaluation during the implementation phase.AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die struktuur van Suid-Afrikaanse stede is deur beide koloniale en apartheidsbeleid in die periode na 1948 beïnvloed en word dikwels beskryf as ‘apartheidstede’. Kompakte stedelike vorm, verhoogde bevolkingsdigtheid, en ‘n groter vermenging van grondgebruike het na 1994 ontwikkel as sleutel elemente van die Suid-Afrikaande ruimtelike beplanningsraamwerk. Die doel van hierdie navorsing is om die invloed van ruimtelike beplanning op stedelike vorm in Suid-Afrika te bepaal deur middel van empiriese navorsing in ‘n aantal metropolitaanse en intermediëre stede. ‘n Omvattende metodologie, gebaseer op die ontleding van verskeie benaderings tot prosedurele beplanningsteorie, is ontwikkel om die invloed van ruimtelike beplanningsprosesse en planne te evalueer. ‘n Raamwerk word ook voorgestel vir die insluiting van hierdie metodologie binne die bestaande voorgeskrewe prosesse vir die voorbereiding van ruimtelike ontwikkelingsraamwerke. Elemente van hierdie metodologie word toegepas om die veranderings in stedelike vorm in agt Suid-Afrikaanse stede sedert 1994 te bepaal. Die resultate toon matige toenames in bevolkingsdigtheid , maar slegs geringe veranderings in die vlakke van vermenging van grondgebruike. Die toenames in bevolkingsdigtheid vind hoofsaaklik plaas in gedesentraliseerde voorstedelike gebiede, en in die geval van die vier grootste metropolitaanse stede, ook on die randgebiede van die historiese stadskerne. Die resultate het vyf variante van die dubbele-liniëre dightheidsmodel om stedelike voetspore te beskryf geïdentifiseer. Die invloed van ruimtelike planne op toenames in bevolkingsdigtheid en vlakke van grondgebruiksvermenging sedert 1994 was beperk, maar dit het wel ‘n noemenswaardige invloed gehad op die ligging van nuwe ekonomies aktiwiteite oor die tydsperiode wat ontleed is. Die evaluaring van ‘n aantal ruimtelike ontwikkelingsraamwerke het aangetoon dat die gehalte van sekere aspekte van hierdie planne verbeter moet word. Dit sluit in die ontleding van ruimtelike ekonomiese patrone, die bepaling van die infrastruktuur en finansiële implikasies van ruimtelike voorstelle, die identifisering van kwantifiseerbare teikens vir volhoubare ontwikkelilng, verskerpte fokus op die ruimtelike aspekte van die informele sektor, en die toepassing van ruimtelike statistiese metodes in die evaluering van die uitkomste van ruimtelike beplanning. Om noemenswaardige veranderings in stedelike ruimtelike patrone te weeg te bring sal die konsekwente toepassing van voorstelle op verskillende ruimtelike vlakke en oor verskeie tydsperiodes vereis. Ruimtelike planne wat gebaseer is op ‘n beperkte aantal beginsels wat konsekwent toegepas word het ‘n groter waarskynlikheid op sukses as ingewikkelde ‘geïntegreerde’ planne. ‘n Goed deurdagte proses vir die volgehoue evaluering van die vasgestelde ruimtelike beplanningsbeginsels is ‘n voorvereiste vir so ‘n beplanningsproses. ‘n Verskuiwing in die fokus van stedelike ruimtelike beplanning vanaf die voorbereiding van planne na die evaluering en monitering daarvan gedurende die implementeringsfase is nodig om die invloed van ruimtelike beplanning op stadstruktuur in Suid-Afrika te verhoog.Doctora