Spatially explicit scenarios for conservation planning in the Great Barrier Reef coastal zone, Australia

The Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA) borders the east coast of Northern Australia for almost 2000 km. Parts of this coast have been extensively developed with planned and potential further coastal developments, including for mining, ports, agriculture, urban, industrial and tourism. These developments may threaten the health of the GBRWHA through sediment, nutrient and pollutant run-off and habitat loss. In the context of conservation planning, the future must be taken into consideration to understand which ecosystems, species or ecological processes may be at risk and where. However, future coastal development is difficult to predict as it depends on volatile socio-economic factors. With this in mind, we develop a research project that uses spatially explicit scenario planning to identify plausible futures to 2035 for the GBRWHA coastal zone. Land use change modelling to produce eight scenarios is being done with GIS. The resulting maps of scenarios allow for comprehensive conservation planning