Recent developments in parity progression intensities in Norway, an analysis based on population register data

This contribution summarizes research results from a project at the Central Bureau of Statistics analyzing the determinants of cohort fertility in Norway. The data consist of female birth histories derived from reported births recorded in the Central Population Register. Sufficient information exist to reconstruct the birth and marriage histories of all women--grouped in one year cohorts—born after 1935. The birth histories have been supplemented with individual socioeconomic information derived from the 1960, 1970 and 1080 Population Censuses. We first delineate the reproductive experience of the female cohorts born between 1935 and 1955. We then examine the sociodemographic fertility differentials of three selected cohorts: women born in 1935, 1945 and 1955. Finally, we concentrate on the determinants of parity-three progressions, as most of the recent fertility decline in Norway is accounted for by a sharp reduction in this parity transition. The analysis is for the most confined to marital fertility. The demographic factors age at marriage, age at entry into parenthood, the occurrence of the first birth relative to marriage, the durations of previous birth intervals, and change of mate-partner dominate overwhelmingly fertility variation. Place of residence and religious denomination are also salient covariates. For a variety of models, socioeconomic variables like income and occupation (of each spouse) and the education of the woman's parents play only a marginal determinant role. The woman's attained education emerges as a somewhat more important variable. A positive effect of education on third-birth progressions is apparent for parity-two women having their second birth in the late seventies. The more common gross inverse relation between education and life-time fertility is corroborated. More thorough results than the summary given here can be found in Brunborg and Kravdal (1986), Gomez de Leon et al (1987) and Kravdal (1989 and 1990); particularly in the latter