Some risks are worth taking: tourism risk management in tropical coastal areas

A model for tourism risk management has been developed in the thesis arising from the literature review and data from the primary research survey, the Delphi Tourism Futures Study 2003. This web-based survey used experts from around the world to collect opinion and data on a variety of risk- and futures-related tourism development information. The methodology was appropriate (qualitative forecasting) to the task, and the modelling of total risk for tourism was supported by the survey results. \ud \ud Important terminologies were redefined to fit the concept of a tourism risk management model that draws on terms used in the disaster and emergency management discipline, international development, and the tourism and insurance industries. The model was built on the original 'risk triangle' concept (risk being a product of hazard, vulnerability and exposure), and a later adaptation developed by Granger (1999) that replaced exposure with 'Elements at Risk'. The new model has added one additional element termed 'Risk Environment' that is made up of three components using a broad definition of environment. Safety and security emerged as the primary concern for tourist destination choice in the coming decades. \ud \ud Indications of the increasing level and extent of crises and catastrophic events affecting tourism in tropical coastal areas suggest a need to study the future. The recent (26 December 2004) Indian Ocean tsunami has heightened awareness of the need for coastal areas to prepare for all types of natural hazards, especially for tourism businesses in vulnerable coastal areas. It is hoped that the research to follow could have a positive impact on: i) building awareness of risk management needs of the tourism industry, and ii) on the role of long-term forecasts in tourism risk management. It is envisaged that tourism risk management will develop into a necessary component of responsible and sustainable tourism development planning. The research to follow suggests that this is plausible, and that tourism risk management can provide a practical planning and management tool