Patterns of transnational terrorism in Western Europe, 1968-1987: A quantitative perspective

This study attempts to understand patterns of transnational terrorism in Western Europe by developing a theoretical framework of transnational terrorist groups. The framework is then used in a quantitative analysis of terrorist group behavior. The study begins by identifying weaknesses in contemporary transnational terrorism research and points to the frequency of ambiguity that has accompanied a majority of said research. Following this introduction, the study introduces a typology of those terrorist groups which are most actively engaged in transnational terrorism in Western Europe. Patterns of violence perpetrated by three classes of terrorist groups--Euroclass, Europrimordial and Palestinian Nationalist--are then analyzed with the intent of establishing differences in terrorist group behavior. The testing of several hypotheses of terrorist group behavior reveals that all classes of terrorist group are relatively similar with respect to the intensity of their violent behavior. There are, however, important differences when the nature of terrorist targets are considered. Euroclass terrorist groups are most likely to target figures in authority, while Europrimordial terrorist groups demonstrate a tendency to target the general public. Palestinian Nationalist terrorist groups take a more balanced approach to targeting. In terms of the logistical success of their operations, both Euroclass and Europrimordial terrorist groups are more likely to complete transnational terrorist acts than Palestinian Nationalist terrorist groups. Moreover, it is also found that much of the contemporary commentary on terrorism is not reflective of the true nature of transnational terrorism. The study concludes by offering explanations for the patterns of terrorist group behavior that are identified in the quantitative analysis. Further suggestions are also made with respect to the utility of terrorist group typologies for analytic purposes and the implications the research findings have for counter terrorist policy