Describing and projecting the age and spatial structures of interregional migration in Italy

A multiplicative component model is applied in this paper to present a simple, yet powerful, framework for analyzing and projecting internal migration flows. The multiplicative components are useful for identifying important underlying structures in the migration patterns. To demonstrate, seven periods of age-specific interregional migration in Italy (1970-1971 to 2000-2001) are analyzed. This information is then used to project the age and spatial structures forward to the 2010-2011 period. The projection model focuses on the underlying structures, which allows both the stable and changing aspects of the migration patterns to be included