Climate change for agrarian societies in drylands: implications and future pathways

Global warming will bring major changes to rainfall and temperatures throughout the world, affecting the viability of many rural and urban livelihoods. Among the regions likely to be most affected are the world's drylands, given their existing exposure to drought and crop failure, high levels of poverty, and weak government services. Predicted changes in rainfall volume and distribution will have major consequences for the natural environment - soils, water, and vegetation - on which people and their livestock depend. Shifts in biophysical productivity will affect the social and economic characteristics of these regions. If adaptation to climate change is to be effective, the interactions among these different elements must be understood to enable adequate, equitable, and timely responses. This chapter outlines the main impacts of climate change on the livelihoods of dryland peoples around the world. It focuses particularly on Africa and on the challenges faced by pastoral societies that are dependent on livestock. It reviews the predictions from science regarding likely changes in temperature and rainfall, and assesses the consequences for the main components of dryland incomes and assets. It sets the discussion of impacts within the larger context of changes currently under way, because climate change is only one of several forces affecting the social, economic, and environmental threads that are woven into the fabric of dryland livelihood systems. A full assessment of climate change impacts needs to review both direct and indirect effects associated with the range of measures and responses that global warming will bring. The chapter finishes with discussion of potential policy changes that would better shape adaptation to the multiple threats and opportunities that climate change will produce