A regional perspective to achieve the future climate regime: a long‐term analysis with the TIAM‐FR model

International audienceGlobal warming is in essence an economic and political problem. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global warming have the same damaging effect regardless of the country in which they originate. All regions of the world are affected, some more than others, regardless of whether and to what extent they contribute to the problem. Protecting the atmosphere and therefore preventing global warming implies a drastic reduction in total greenhouse gas emissions. However, in the absence of an international agreement on emissions control, countries adopt free‐riding behaviors. Each country counts on others to reduce emissions and to incur the resulting abatement cost. The Kyoto Protocol was the first international agreement in which some countries (Annex I to the protocol) committed to emission reduction targets over the period 2008‐2012. The protocol’s impact has however been limited, because of a lack of commitments from rapidly growing emerging countries such as China and India, and non‐ratification by the United States. The challenge of the Copenhagen summit in 2009 was to determine the rules for the post‐Kyoto period. It was therefore essential to ensure the ratification of a global agreement on emission reduction targets and to include all major industrialized and emerging countries. Although negotiations during the summit failed to reach a global agreement, in late January 2010 some countries including major emerging nations pledged their commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as part of the Copenhagen Agreement. Emissions control commitments now cover 80% of 2005 global GHG emissions. These pledges occur until 2020 and constitute period 2 of the Kyoto Protocol (2013‐2020). The challenge now is to get countries to converge towards a global and multilateral agreement to keep in line with ambitious targets to limit GHG emissions. This is the ultimate aim of the Conference of Parties due to take place in Paris in 2015. While the deadline for the implementation of this agreement is imminent, we propose to discuss the key points to reach these ambitious objectives by 2015