The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamicsof Diadromous fish Distribution

International audienceWithin the context of ongoing environmental changes, the life history of diadromous fish represents areal potential for exploring and colonizing new environments due to high potential dispersal abilities. Theuse of dynamic approaches to assess how these species will respond to climate change is a challenging issue and mechanistic models able to incorporate biological and evolutionary processes are a promising tool. To this end we developed an individual-based model, called GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamicsfor Diadromous fish Distribution), combining climatic requirements and population dynamics with an explicit dispersal process to evaluate potential evolution of their distribution area in the context of climatic change. This paper describes thoroughly the model structure and presents an exploratory test casewhere the repositioning of a virtual allis shad (Alosa alosa L.) population between two river catchments under a scenario of temperature increase was assessed. The global sensitivity analysis showed that land-scape structure and parameters related to sea lifespan and to survival at sea were crucial to determine the success of colonization. These results were consistent with the ecology of this species. The integration of climatic factors directly into the processes and the explicit dispersal process make GR3D an original and relevant tool to assess the repositioning dynamics and persistence of diadromous fish facing climate change