DOIAbstract
Mathematical models of the scientific citation process predict a strong first-mover effect under which the first papers in a field will no matter how many other papers are published after them. We test this conjecture against data from a selection of fields and in several cases find a first-mover effect of a magnitude similar to that predicted by the theory. Were we wearing our cynical hat today we might say that the scientist who wants to become famous is better off -- by a wide margin -- writing a modest paper in next year's hottest field than an outstanding paper in this year's. On the other hand there are some later-published papers albeit only a small fraction though they often receive relatively few citations overall are probably wort...
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