Evaluation des modèles de calcul des flux polluants des rejets urbains par temps de pluie

International audienceThe use of urban stormwater quality models necessitates the estimation of their outputs’uncertainty level.The results of the application of a Monte Carlo Markov Chain method based on the Bayesian theory for thecalibration and uncertainty analysis of a storm water quality model commonly used in available softwareare presented in this paper. The tested model estimates the accumulation, erosion and transport of pollutants onsurfaces and in sewers using a hydrologic/hydrodynamic scheme. The model was calibrated for 4 different initialconditions of in-sewer deposits. Calibration results showed a large variability in the model’s outputs in function ofthe initial conditions and demonstrated that the tested model’s predictive capacity is very lo