Modeling Pathways for residential energy demand in megacities - The case of the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Potential future medium and long-term developments of residential energy demand in large urban agglomerations and their impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are often poorly understood. The purpose of the thesis is to improve the understanding on how the residential sector in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) may develop under the absence of national and local energy-efficiency policies and measures. Modeling and scenario techniques are used for the investigation on future residential energy demand. This investigation is centered on the impact of demographic and economic developments on household energy demand. In addition, this project also investigates an alternative scenario for a more sustainable future in which currently best available technologies are used. This scenario reveals how the residential energy demand could be greatly reduced by implementing comprehensive energy efficiency policies and overcoming market barriers. To this end, a bottom-up model for the residential sector in the MCMA was developed and implemented. The designed model adapts modeling techniques developed by other researchers. The resulting final energy demand is subdivided into standard end-use services of households. The model is set to adjusted gas and electricity sales data for the year 2010. Future developments of appliance stocks and energy intensities are projected separately for each end-use service. The impact of energy demand developments on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions was estimated through the integration of energy supply scenarios. As outcome from the modeling work, scenarios suggest that in the absence of additional residential sector policies beyond those in place today, energy demand in the MCMA in 2010 could rise by 23% by 2030. In contrast, the outcome from the alternative scenario indicates that the strict implementation of currently best available technologies in 2018 could decrease the energy demand of the sector by 49% by 2030 in relation to the year 2010. Furthermore, a conducted sub-scenario to the alternative scenario demonstrates that theoretically residential energy consumption in 2010 could be reduced up to 60% in the case that all old, inefficient appliances could be exchanged by 2030. Combining designed energy demand scenarios with energy supply scenarios, it was estimated that CO2 emissions in 2010 caused by activities of households in the MCMA could be reduced by 75% in 2030. This is done through energy-efficiency improvements of household equipment and the integration of large shares of renewable energies into the electricity grid