The relative importance of inheritances in Norway

In a very influential paper, Piketty (2011) finds that inherited wealth is of increasing importance in France. He describes a U-shaped pattern in the long-run development of inheritance flows. Two driving factors in this development are the relative ratio of wealth of the deceased to wealth of the living, and the wealth-income ratio. In periods with high economic growth, wealth of the past is weakened and inheritances as share of national income decreases. As soon as growth declines, however, the wealth inherited from one s parents and grandparents strengthens its significance and may end up dominating new wealth. This thesis concludes that Norway seems to be a European outsider also when it comes to the importance of inheritances. Whereas France and the UK have experienced sharply increasing inheritance flows over the past decades and are facing ratios of inheritances to national income between 8 and 15 percent, the inheritance flow in Norway from 1998-2012 is stable at a much lower level. Using the official inheritance tax register, the flow is around 1 percent. The official inheritance register is not reliable, however. Since only tax liable transfers are registered, a large amount of inheritances are excluded from the tax records. In addition, the thresholds for exemptions and tax rates have been altered over the period so that the inheritance data from year to year are not comparable. Using register data including also tax exempt transfers, the inheritance flow increases slightly. Adjusting the inheritance flow by an estimate of tax avoidance found by investigating the development of wealth and wealth assets during the last period of life yields an inheritance flow between 1,5 and 2 percent. Piketty's way of estimating the inheritance-income ratio is used as an upper bound of tax avoidance. Combining a slightly decreasing mortality rate, an increasing wealth-income ratio and a stable wealth of the deceased to wealth of the living ratio results in an estimated Norwegian inheritance flow around 3,5 percent. Even if there does not seem to be an increase in the Norwegian inheritance flow from 1998 to 2012, this does not mean that the long-run development is stable. Applying the r > g logic, an important reason for Norway s rather unique position in the European context is that the country has maintained income growth during a period where most other countries have suffered from a recession. If this growth comes to a halt or declines, one cannot exclude the possibility of increasing inheritance flows also here