Predicting domestic public expenditures on HIV and AIDS in low and middle income countries : Identifying main determinants

Background Knowing the level of spending of the countries is the first step in examining the ability to take on a greater share of the financial burden to sustain a response to the HIV pandemic. The UNGASS Declaration of Commitment on HIV/AIDS was signed by 189 countries agreeing to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of halting and beginning to reverse the HIV/AIDS epidemic by 2015. Objective The objective is twofold; to identify determinants for the domestic public expenditures on HIV and AIDS in low and middle income countries, and to predict the domestic public expenditures on HIV and AIDS for 2004. Methods A cross-sectional analysis using multiple regression analysis to find determinants and to predict the level of spending on HIV in 136 low- and middle-income countries in 2004. Tests for robustness of the model specifications and assumptions were performed. Findings The model predicted a total of 2.7 USD billions on domestic public expenditures on HIV and AIDS in 2004. We found four independent determinants for government spending; GDP (coefficient estimate = 1.256; p