Does conditionality work? : the study on international pressure and the political impasse after the 1995 general elections in Zanzibar

International pressure and Zanzibar political development has been the focus of this thesis. The current question has been whether aid conditionality imposed on Zanzibar after the 1995 general elections has exacerbated political tensions on the islands. This involved the discussion of several connected issues. It was first consider whether the connection between aid and political conditionality could help to solve political tension and finally lead to a democratic society with respect of human rights and the rule by law. Theoretical, human rights and democracy situation may improve, worsen or remain unchanged independently of the conditionality imposed. During the last few years the linkage between political conditionality and development assistance has become widely accepted and entered bilateral and multilateral aid policies among a number of donors. The assumption is that this new policy of aid conditionality is controversial, both within donors and recipient countries. Although aid conditionality may improve aid efficiency in some cases, the hypothesis here is that it has contributed negatively to Zanzibar situation in terms of respect for human rights and in bringing the opposition parties into dialogue. An overall proposition is that the probability for a successful outcome from the donors' perspective needs to consider the specific content of the particular case. A framework for analysing aid relations was provided by the so-called linkage diplomacy, that is, attention in this study has been given to the linkage between conditionality imposed on Zanzibar and political development. In aid terminology, linkage diplomacy has been defined as negative conditionality. Even though asymmetrical relationship has been determined as one of the favourable condition for effectiveness of aid conditionality, it may not necessarily lead to political change, as the situation in Zanzibar over the past few years has demonstrated. In other words, the effectiveness of political conditionality depends on the combined effects of internal and external structural and political variables. Tanzania held its first multiparty elections in October 1995. While the elections in Tanzania mainland were characterised as free and fair, elections in Zanzibar were condemned by the opposition parties as well as a large part of the donor community. After the election, the total impasse developed over the disputed Zanzibar elections. Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) won over the opposition, Civil United Front (CUF) in the presidential race with the narrowest margin of 0.4%. The veracity of results for Zanzibar presidential election was in serious doubt after numerous reports of significant discrepancies. Since then Zanzibar has been the subject of much international discussion and of diplomatic isolation by the Western donor community. Among the serious complaints made about the elections and the developments after the elections have been the lack of transparency on the counting of the ballot, harassment of the political opponents, in particular members and supporters of the Civil United Front (CUF) by the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) on the Islands and curtailment of freedom of expression. In the aftermath of the elections the CUF decided to boycott the House of Representatives. Large part of the donor community chose to respond to the complaints by applying negative conditionality. It was decided therefore, not to assist development projects in Zanzibar until a solution has been found on the political tensions on the Islands. The donor community argues on this score that the situation in Zanzibar is not conducive for development. This study has been limited to four Nordic countries, namely Denmark, Norway, Finland and Sweden in relation to Zanzibar political situation. Imposition of conditionality on Zanzibar has not been received passively by the Zanzibar Government. Political tensions in Zanzibar escalated amidst the imposition of conditionality. For the past four years the Zanzibar Government has resented external pressure to undertake reforms in which has been perceived as "favouring" the Civil United Front. CUF, on the other hand, believes that the donor community has been sympathetic with them. In this thesis it is argued that this form of aid intervention has produced negative effects in so far as it has intensified the already existing social division and tensions. I can conclude that the external pressure has not so far helped to produce the desired results, namely to improve the human rights situation and an environment conducive for the growth of democratic institutions as well as development. The uncompromising stand adopted by both parties, besides the withdrawal of aid, and the Commonwealth's efforts to bring them into agreement, is leaving little hope for political changes. The human rights situation in Zanzibar is still the same. The achievement of the objectives set by donors is, in other words rather remote. The situation is likely to remain the same until the next election, in the year 2000. Case study has been a preferable research strategy to the study. The problem statement tried to study the contemporary international regime on development aid policies towards Zanzibar and its political behaviour. Unlike other research strategies, case studies allow the use of variety of evidence. The study made use of a wide range of primary and secondary sources. In addition to secondary literature on the subject, books, articles and relevant periodicals, the study is based on four main categories of primary sources, namely official documents, newspapers and information from internet, interviews and direct observation. The field work was conducted from November 1988-February 1999 in Tanzania. I also had interviews with officials from Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and NORAD, here in Oslo, as well as telephone interviews with some officials from Ministries of Foreign Affairs in Denmark, Finland and Sweden