Post-collapse Somalia : a study of the debate on the collapse of the unitary state and the prospects for the newly-adopted federal system

Abstract This study addresses two macro issues, which concern politics and state affairs in post-colonial Somalia. The study is thus composed of two parts. The first part deals with the phenomenon of state collapse which occurred in 1991 when the former dictator, Mohamed Siad Barre was ousted from power by clan-based opposition groups and became prolonged due to intra-elite power struggle and continued civil war, despite repeated attempts of peace conferences aiming at restoring the national state to Somalia. And the second part of the study deals with the federal system first adopted by Somali delegates to the peace conference for Somalia at Arta, Djibouti, in 2000 as an alternative form of state organization in post-collapse Somalia, and then reconfirmed by participants to the latest peace conference in Kenya between 2002 and 2004. In the first part, arguments by several writers on Somali affairs as to why the unitary state in Somalia collapsed were analyzed. These arguments centered on five factors mentioned in recent literature on Somalia as being crucial for state collapse. These factors were: the Somali culture and particularly its clan system, elite characteristics, colonial legacy, economic scarcity and foreign involvement. The conclusion from this part was that despite the widespread assumption that the mass culture was the key problematic factor in Somali politics, elite characteristics and their leadership qualities were more crucial for peace and state functions in Somalia. In the second part of the study, I assessed the prospects for the federal system that was recently adopted becoming more successful than the failed unitary state system. Using theories about federalism, examples from federal cases that have failed particularly in Africa, and the findings from part one of the study, I concluded that given the elite political culture in today s Somalia and the level of their competence in state affairs, it was unlikely that the adopted federalism would lead to a better functioning state, capable of gaining the loyalty of the Somali people in a legitimate manner through visionary guidance, transparent legal and political engagement, public services and wise foreign policy. Therefore, the overall conclusion of the study is that leadership is more crucial for addressing the Somali challenge than structural, cultural, natural or other factors that are often mentioned in literature on contemporary Somalia and that addressing the leadership problem is the main challenge facing the Somalis if they are to survive as a viable nation in the hard environment of the Horn of Africa