Be afraid

Fostering fear and prejudice has become a political art-form in Australia, writes John Spoehr in the Adelaide Review. . Great big taxes, great big lies and video tape – the politics of fear are showing on a screen near you. Fostering fear and prejudice has become a political art-form in Australia. The age of shock jock politics is alive and well with the carbon tax its latest victim. So what happened to the emerging carbon price consensus in Australia?  The vast majority of Australians backed a price on carbon in the lead up to the 2007 Federal election. Vocal climate change sceptics were prominent but not dominant in the debate. The Coalition appeared to have plenty of sceptics within it but it agreed that a price on carbon was an essential ingredient of climate change policy in Australia. The Greens wanted a carbon tax and Labor pushed for the introduction of an emissions trading scheme. Both approaches targeted the largest emitters of greenhouse gases.  A hostile Senate stymied the Rudd Labor government’s attempts to get its emissions trading scheme off the ground, giving the government a double dissolution election trigger. Kevin Rudd probably wishes he took advantage of this now. He had captured the imaginations of most Australians when he proclaimed climate change to be the greatest moral challenge of our time. The failure to get the ETS off the ground left many in the community feeling dispirited. Even though the failure of the ETS was a product of the Coalition and the Greens opposing it, the strategy adopted by Labor to put it on ice until international circumstances were more politically favourable was viewed by many as defeatist and it annoyed them. The scene was set for Kevin Rudd’s demise. Expectations for a price on carbon were high and they couldn’t be ignored. Recognising this, the new PM, Julia Gillard, revived Labor’s vision for an emissions trading scheme and a price on carbon, arguing aggressively against a carbon tax. While differences between the schemes were lost on most Australians, Labor was determined to undermine the credibility of carbon taxes as a way of tackling climate change.  The outcome of the 2010 election forced Labor to rethink its approach. It had to cut a deal with The Greens if it was to deliver a price on carbon. The compromise carbon tax path to a carbon trading system is actually quite an elegant political solution, but it had to be sold incredibly well to overcome the inevitable accusations that Labor back-flipped on its promise not to introduce a carbon tax. The joint announcement with The Greens of a carbon tax/carbon trading model needed to make the obvious point again and again, that Labor had to compromise on its CRPS if it was deliver a price on carbon.  It also needed to drive home that the focus of the scheme was the largest greenhouse gas emitters, not households. Too little was said about the government’s intention to use the proceeds from a price on carbon to help cushion households against price rises.  While Labor didn’t need to announce all the details of the new scheme, it had to do more than it did to make itself a smaller target for the Opposition. Tony Abbott wielded the great big tax tag to great effect, fuelling and emboldening climate change sceptics in a troubling alliance with the Coalition. This strategy is already unravelling for the Opposition Leader who is being forced to distance himself from the dark forces he has played a role in unleashing.  Meanwhile the Gillard Government has been honing its carbon price message. The Prime Minister was in good form at a recent Don Dunstan Foundation lecture in Adelaide, where she admitted that she had broken a promise and explained why she had to. She said “...if I’d been leading a majority government I would have been getting on with an emissions trading scheme, just as I promised the Australian people. As it is, in this minority parliament, the only way I could act to price carbon was by working with the other Members of Parliament, or else do nothing. I had a stark choice. Do I act or not act? I chose to act. The Government’s plan means we start with a fixed price for a temporary transitional period that puts a price on carbon from day one. We still have an emissions trading scheme but we will get there by a different route.” Most Australians want a price on carbon but they are worried about the implications of the new hybrid carbon tax/carbon trading scheme for them. They need more detail about how the scheme will operate. It is clear that Labor will deliver packages of assistance to help industry and households adjust to a price on carbon. As more details are released over coming weeks, the Opposition’s campaign against Labor’s plan is likely to lose momentum, particularly if Tony Abbott continues to flirt with the more extreme climate change sceptics. There will be many in the Liberal Party who are deeply disturbed by this development and wondering whether Tony Abbott might become the next victim of climate change politics in Australia. Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey are probably feeling a little more hopeful that their leadership ambitions might be fulfilled. Julia Gillard and Greg Combet have a hard job ahead of them but they look much more sure- footed than they were a few weeks ago. We look much more likely to get a price on carbon now than a few years ago. It will be an ugly political contest that will probably make or break a few careers.    John Spoehr is the Executive Director of the Australian Institute for Social Research and the Centre for Labour Research, University of Adelaide. Above: Opposition leader Tony Abbott. Photo: Mystifyme Concert Photograph