Political developments in Afghanistan

This paper looks at the political system in Afghanistan in the wake of the 2010 parliamentary elections and the moves towards reintegration and a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. Key findings include: • Politics in Afghanistan are unpredictable and some institutions work much better than others, with the parliament showing signs of independence • The Presidency still has much more power than other national institutions, but in global terms it is weak • Patronage and corruption may be on the rise • Both Karzai and Obama have made personnel changes which may be preparations for a faster move towards negotiations with the insurgency • Inter-ethnic tensions, particularly associated with the Afghan army and other security-related institutions, is reported to be on the increase and non-Pashtuns generally oppose negotiations with the Taliban • A real commitment from Afghanistan’s neighbours to foster stability would make a big difference. It is not clear that this is forthcoming, particularly in the case of Pakistan and India, who may play out their rivalries in Afghanistan • The possibility of a resurgence of instability or even of civil war when Coalition forces withdraw cannot be ruled ou