Youth federal election voting intentions

Exploring the question of community engagement and political participation by younger Australians, this project analyses fifteen years of Newspoll surveys. Youth voting intentions over the most recent 15 years of Newspoll quarterly data were investigated using both statistical and graphical means. An initial approach (after Watson, 2008) separated the various age groups, 18‐24s, 25‐34s, and all others (35+), on their voting intentions for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens in calendar years leading to a Federal Election in order to compute confidence intervals and t‐tests on any age group differences. Graphs of the youth voting intentions for the parties were contrasted with those of the others and consistent statistically significant differences were found for the vote for the Coalition and the Greens between these groups. While Labor was distinguished on the voting intentions support of the 18‐24s from the others in 2010, 2007, and 2004, it was the 25‐34s who had the greater voting intentions percentages in 1998 and 1996. A second approach aggregated the age groups, 18‐24, 25‐34, 35‐49, and 50+, and constructed line graphs for voting intentions in the electoral cycles up to 2010. Major parties trendline graphs were supplemented by specific graphs for Labor, the Coalition and the Greens which were further analysed by correlational analyses to establish the youth groups’ commonality with the other groups. Youth voting intentions were here confirmed from those of other age groups. Although the 25‐34s have appeared to take the lead on separate occasions, it was the 18‐24s who were consistently at the extremes in their voting intentions for all parties. The latter’s support though was seen to be extremely volatile but generally in the direction of the progressive left‐oriented parties. A final section used both graphs and a correlational analysis to identify gender differences amongst the youth groups and the others. All age/gender groups were distinguished from the others to a greater or lesser degree, but the 18‐24 females were seen to be the most unique. Their consistent variation from the voting intentions of the other age/groups highlights how they must have different priorities in the values they hold concerning their voting preference. Overall this study has confirmed the youth groups, especially the neophyte electors (18‐24s), have supported the progressive small “l” parties over the conservative ones. They have been the most volatile of the groups but nonetheless the most consistently anti‐conservative. A gender effect has been apparent amongst the 18‐24s in which the females’ support of parties with “green” or socially supportive policies has outstripped all others. Image: Sarah Hanson-Young, Greens Sentator, RubyGoes / flickr &nbsp