2013 New South Wales redistribution: analysis of final electoral boundaries

IntroductionThis publication provides an assessment of the political impact for the final determined New South Wales electoral boundaries, proclaimed on 18 September 2013. The final boundaries contained only minor adjustments to the draft boundaries released on 17 June 2013. The new boundaries will apply from the 2015 election.It must be stressed that this publication does not provide predictions for the 2015 election. The estimated margins provided in this publication are best thought of as possible results of the 2011 election had that election been fought on the new boundaries. The estimates cannot take into account the difference in candidate and campaign effort that would have occurred if the 2011 election had been fought on the new boundaries. The difficulty of splitting polling place catchment areas to match new electoral boundaries, as well as allocating declaration votes to new electorates, means the estimated margins should be treated as approximations