Indonesia: balancing the United States and China, aiming for independence

This study provides an assessment of Indonesia’s relations with the United States and China, with a particular focus on security-related ties. Executive summary A country on the rise, Indonesia upholds a flexible foreign policy that allows it to productively engage with both the United States and China. Indonesian strategic thinking is dominated by the rise of China, the response to that rise, and how the rise will affect regional security architecture. Though Indonesia shares, and has historically shared, positive ties with the United States, Indonesia will avoid entering into an alliance and will continue to enmesh with both the United States and China. Indonesia places great importance on strong regional infrastructure, with ASEAN at the core, to maintain regional stability and to facilitate cooperation. By cementing regional institutions, Indonesia hopes to “engage and constrain” both China and the United States, especially in the face of increased Chinese assertiveness from 2010 onwards.   In a recent visit to the United States, Joko Widodo and Barack Obama committed to establishing a Strategic Partnership as well as an annual ministerial strategic dialogue — the next steps in the positive relationship between these two countries. Members of the Indonesian foreign policy community mostly view the United States as a fundamentally benign and trustworthy power, whereas Sino–Indonesian ties are tethered by an inherent wariness of Chinese intentions. Indonesia will continue to enjoy its middle-power status and largely benign external strategic environment. Time will tell if the changing South-East Asian security environment will deliver Indonesia, as Jokowi describes, “big country” status. Key points: Indonesia maintains a strong commitment to the foundational principle that the country should adopt a “free and active” foreign policy. This commitment means that Indonesia will not enter into a formal alliance, but will actively pursue enhanced bilateral ties with both the United States and China. Since independence, Indonesia has maintained a relatively cooperative and mutually supportive relationship with the United States. The current security partnership is limited by Indonesia’s current operating and strategic capacities, and a desire to maintain a diverse range of cooperative relationships. Indonesia’s relationship with China has been subject to sharp shifts, and while Indonesia seeks to benefit from closer economic relations with an economically rising China, the rise also underscores a persistent wariness in Indonesia that is likely to remain a limiting factor in the bilateral relationship