Determinants of Domestic Investment in the Libyan Manufacturing Sector and its Impact

The main objectives of this thesis are to examine and estimate the determinants of domestic investment (public and private) in the Libyan manufacturing sector, and to investigate the impact of domestic investment on the Libyan economy. It adds to the growing literature on the issue of economic growth and econometrics by drawing attention to several issues hitherto little considered in the existing literature. In particular, the thesis blends various aspects of economic growth with models of investment to explain and define the main factors which affect domestic investment, and how domestic investment drives economic growth in the Libyan economy. It is important to recognise that economic growth has become an important aim for all countries in the world; especially less developed countries, which require greater economic efforts to be able to deal with the current international economic climate and the challenges of globalisation: domestic investment is an exemplary element to stimulate economic growth to achieve this target. The main objective of the Libyan government has been the industrialization of Libya, principally through import substitution. Various import restrictions in the form of licensing, quotas and tariffs have provided several sub-sectors of manufacturing with a high level of protection from foreign competition. The government benefits from high levels of financial return in terms of oil revenues, and the consequent easy availability of imported raw materials and capital goods. Despite government support for investment designed to encourage import substitution and export-oriented production, Libya has continued to experience low levels of investment in the domestic manufacturing sector. The stimulus to undertake this study was a desire to explore the most important determinants of fixed investment in Libya's manufacturing sector. This study aims to identify determinants of domestic investment in both the public and private manufacturing sectors in the Libyan economy during the period 1962-2008. Furthermore, this study aimed to identify the impact of domestic investment as a determinant of growth in the Libyan economy during the period 1962-2008. Cobb- Douglas Function was used to analyze the relationship between real per-capita GDP and its most important determinants. Properties of time series of the model variables have been analyzed by using several tests for determining the integration level of each time series separately.B y using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration method, the results showed that private investment is strongly and adversely affected in the longer term by changes that take place in domestic public investment in the manufacturing sector, which shows the competition factor between the private and public sectors. The results of these tests revealed an equilibrium relationship between domestic investment in the private manufacturing sector and its determinants in the long and short-run. Also, the results showed the significance of the impact of annual appropriations for the manufacturing sector and imports of machinery & capital goods on domestic investment in the public manufacturing sector, the results of these tests revealed an equilibrium relationship between domestic investment in the public manufacturing sector and its determinants in the long and short-run. Moreover, the results showed the significance of the impact of investment on per-capita GDP; the results of tests revealed an equilibrium relationship between per-capita GDP and its determinants in the long and short-run. The study concludes that the elasticity of per capita GDP to changes in domestic investment is greater than the elasticity of the labour force, which appeared inelastic in the short and long-term. According to the information available, the study and approach adopted have never been undertaken before for Libya, and therefore might contribute toward advancing knowledge and enhancing investment policy, and its implementation by government and private manufacturing enterprises in Libya and other developing countries