Prospects for renewable electricity production in Libya, using parabolic trough solar thermal generation

We evaluate the prospects for achieving the Libyan national plan of 10% on-stream renewable electricity generation by 2020, using Parabolic Trough solar collectors. In order to estimate reliably the generation capacity required, forecasting scenarios for electricity production have been developed, based on historical data between 2001 and 2007. A supply growth rate of between 6% and 9% is predicted, yielding a target between 5442 GWh/yr and 7822 GWh/yr by 2020. The Solar Advisor Model (SAM) software developed by the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is used to simulate proposed 100MW Parabolic Trough solar power units, with either water or dry cooling systems, in Tripoli and in other comparator locations in North Africa and Southern Europe. These units are then used in multiples to satisfy the required generation capacity. The annual electricity output for each unit in Tripoli is some 224 GWh and the total required capital cost for the proposed number of installed units is some $11 billion. However, in the south of Libya (e.g. Al Kufra) the solar resource is substantially greater and the nett electricity output per installed solar unit is 50% higher than in Tripoli. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in Tripoli is 18¢/kWh, and in Al Kufra around 14¢/kWh including a HVDC transmission cost of 3¢/kWh to the north of the country. The LCOE is about 4¢/kWh and 8¢/kWh lower respectively than in Palermo and Athens, suggesting favorable prospects for export of green electricity