Reassessment of flood risk for Scottish rivers using synthetic runoff data

Increased hydroclimatic variability in recent years and the resultant flooding raise questions concerning flood risk estimation from short flow records in Scotland. Long peak flow series have been simulated using historical rainfall to reassess flood risk estimates for 11 selected rivers. Changes of >10% in the estimated value of the 100-year flood are reported for three rivers, as a result of the synthetic record extension achieved. Future changes in flood risk, as a result of possible changes in atmospheric circulation, are discussed briefly