Dugoročno planiranje energetske potrošnje ovisno o energetskoj politici

Long term energy goals that the EU has set for the years 2020 and 2050, in order to increase its security of energy supply, decrease the impact on the environment and stimulate sustainability, are binding to all member states. Croatia as a new EU member state needs to reconsider and develop new energy policy towards energy efficiency and renewable energy sources. One of the key processes is rational energy consumption and gradual national energy demand decrease. Having said this; it is important to understand what mechanisms are influencing energy demand and what is their long term impact, so future energy demand fluctuations can be modelled. Classical energy demand planning is usually focused on establishing a relationship between economic indicators, such as the GDP, and energy consumption. This is usually done based on analyzing different historical data and processing them in a relatively simple way, like time series analysis, or applying more complex analyses using neural networks, genetic algorithms or similar methods. It is argued that this approach has become inefficient in the case of EU countries which strive towards decoupling their economic growth and energy consumption. Numerous initiatives towards lowering energy consumption in the EU by implementing different Directives, financial schemes and mechanisms that should result in lowering energy demand in the future substantiate this argument. A new approach in the energy demand planning process is necessary. In order to describe and quantify energy policy measures bottom up engineering models, focused on end users, have to be used. Throughout this thesis, the author has developed the National energy Demand model (NeD model) and used it to calculate long term final energy demand of Croatia. The model is based on sectoral approach and includes six major economic sub models; households, transport, industry, services, construction and agriculture. The results of the NeD model are compared to two available studies/models, the Primes EU28 and the Croatian national strategy. As an additional segment of this thesis is the implementation of the NeD methodology into LEAP model, in order to have more simplified long term energy demand model of Croatia which would be more easily used. The main question that the author asks is: what is the effect of the implementation of various energy policies on the long term energy demand, primarily, but also what is the effect on the environment and national economy.Dugoročni energetski ciljevi, koje je Europska komisija zadala za 2020. i 2050. godinu, u svrhu povećanja sigurnosti energetske opskrbe, smanjenja utjecaja na okoliš i poticanja održivosti, su obvezujući za sve zemlje članice. Hrvatska, kao nova zemlja članica mora preispitati i razviti novu energetsku politiku prema energetskoj učinkovitosti i obnovljivim izvorima energije. Jedan od ključnih elemenata je racionalna energetska potrošnja i njeno postupno smanjivanje. Obzirom na izrečeno; izuzetno je bitno shvatiti koji su to mehanizmi koji utječu na energetsku potrošnju te koji je njihov dugoročni efekt. Klasični pristup energetskom planiranju potrošnje se fokusira na traženje međuovisnosti između makroekonomskih varijabli, kao što je bruto domaći proizvod, i potrošnje energije. To se obično radi analizom različitih setova povijesnih podataka koja može biti vrlo jednostavna, kao vremenski nizovi, ili relativno kompleksna, kao što su genetski algoritmi, neuronske mreže ili neke slične metode. Ovakav pristup je postao nedovoljan, pogotovo u slučaju zemalja EU, koje čine sve kako bi razdvojile svoj gospodarski rast i potrošnju energije. Brojne inicijative, usmjerene ka smanjenju potrošnje energije unutar EU, primjenom različitih direktiva, financijskih mehanizama za posljedicu će imati smanjenje potrošnje energije uz planirani gospodarski rast. Novi pristup kod planiranja energetske potrošnje je potreban. Kako bi se opisali i kvantificirali mehanizmi energetske politike, energetski modeli koji počivaju na pristupu odozdo prema gore fokusirani na krajnjeg korisnika, trebaju biti primijenjeni. Kroz ovu tezu autor je razvio National energy Demand model (NeD model), te ga iskoristio kako bi izračunao dugoročnu finalnu potrošnju Republike Hrvatske. Model je baziran na sektorskom pristupu te uključuje šest glavnih ekonomskih sektora: kućanstva, transport, industrija, usluge, poljoprivreda, te građevinarstvo. Rezultati NeD modela su uspoređeni s dva modela/studije, Primes EU28 te nacionalnom energetskom strategijom. Kao dodatna komponenta ove teze jest implementacija NeD metoda i postupaka u LEAP model, kako bi imali jednostavan za koristiti dugoročni model energetske potrošnje Republike Hrvatske. Glavno pitanje koje si autor teze postavlja je: kakav će biti efekt implementacije mjera energetske politike na dugoročnu energetsku potrošnju, ali i okoliš