Natural disasters and electoral support: an investigation of channels driving vote decisions

In this study, we analyze how changes in risk perception and uncertainty following the occurrence of earthquakes affects incumbent mayor reelection probability and party votes. To identify the causal impact of uncertainty on reelection probability and vote shares, we exploit data from 5 municipal electoral cycles (1993-2015) in Italy and apply an empirical strategy with OLS and linear probability models that control for the electoral cycle, municipality time-invariant heterogeneity and several time-variant characteristics. We find that more uncertainty (destructive earthquakes) significantly increases the incumbent chance of being reelected and vote share, with some persistence in the following electoral cycles. These results point at preferences for less uncertain outcomes by the struck population. We discuss evidence on possible channels and show that higher visibility on the media and disaster relief spending by incumbent politicians have higher marginal reward. Finally, we provide evidence of voter rationality since choices enhance post-electoral income