Demographic structure and private savings: some evidence from emerging markets

This paper tests the life cycle hypothesis that private saving rises with a higher percentage of working population and fall with higher percentages of the young and retired groups. Consistent with this hypothesis, our results from annual data for fourteen emerging markets suggest that age structure is a prime determinant of national saving. The results reveal a significant positive (negative) relationship between the national saving ratio and the percentage of working (children) population groups in the majority of the countries. The results are less conclusive regarding the statistical relationship between national saving and the elderly population group and several explanations for the apparent weak relationship are discussed.Cet article vérifie l’hypothèse du cycle de vie et des effets sur l’épargne. Les résultats sur quatorze marchés émergents suggèrent que la structure de l’âge est le déterminant principal de l’épargne nationale. Il y a aussi une relation positive (négative) significative entre le taux d’épargne national et le pourcentage de population qui travaille (les enfants) dans la plupart des pays. Les résultats sont moins clairs sur les relations entre l’épargne nationale et le group le plus âgé; ce qui est interprété dans l’article