Urban Growth Within a Finite Space: Case-study Muscat

During the last four and half decades of physical urbanization, Muscat, the capital city of Oman, has received a massive influx of local and international migrants. Based on the National Centre of Statistics and Information (NCSI) in April 2016, Oman’s population was recorded at 4,441,448 with the population of Muscat Governorate forming more than half of Oman’s total population (2,395,412). According the NCSI statistics in 2010, Muscat represents the highest rate of urban population in Oman by 97.44% (almost 36% of the total urban population in Oman). This swift demographic change has reshaped the overall urban fabric of the city. On a spatial level, although Muscat Governorate represents merely 1.3% of Oman’s total area, the suitable areas for development have been nearly exploited. Horizontal develop- ment based on villa residences has largely influenced the rapid consumption of land. The physical terrains in Muscat such as mountains, creeks, and valleys also limit the amount of proper land for urban development. Urban growth in Muscat has endured a long history of political and socio-economic variables. Obviously, these variables have largely affected the entire urban pattern at every period of time. Unfortunately, the various governmental institutions responsible for urban management since the early seventies created imbalanced attitudes between the availability of natural resources and the rate of consumption. Urban governance based on centralized decision-making has widened the urban issues. The land distribution system has largely contributed of rapid consumption of land. For instance, despite its limited area and large population, Muscat’s residential plot size is equivalent to those in other areas throughout Oman. The land granting system that is based on random lottery has largely contributed to the emergence of low-density, scattered territory in Muscat and many areas in Oman. Land for investment that could enhance the economy or that provides jobs has become scarce. Furthermore, huge areas have been consumed for automobile-based use. Obviously, the sharp increase of population in Muscat, which has quadrupled several times during the past four decades according to the NCSI statistics, has largely contributed on the depletion of available natural resources. As Muscat serves as the headquarters for most of governmental offices and companies, it has been the focus of internal migration thus receiving the highest number of job seekers. Meanwhile, as Muscat serves as the centre for major government and investment, it received the bulk of the expatriate population both in terms of “white collar” and “blue collar” workers. Horizontal low-density areas have been developed to house the influx of those immigrants. With increases in traffic and in the absence of a viable public transport system, huge areas in Muscat have been asphalted for vehicular use. This paper intends to visualize the transformation of socioeconomic conditions and their impacts on the current urban patterns. It attempts to focus on the negative consequences that might be encountered if the current urban management persists as Oman moves toward a post-oil period. Meanwhile, it provides indicators to urban governors and deci- sion-makers as to the need of urgent intervention towards resource saving, and socially- and economically-balanced utilization of limited resources