Influence of the Environmental Moisture Field on the 17 November 2013 Outbreak

This work investigates the connection between relevant environmental parameters, such as the low-level moisture field, and the evolution of convective systems. In order to isolate this relationship, the 17 November 2013 severe outbreak is studied in detail. This was a significant event that resulted in numerous reports of damage from strong winds, large hail, and 75 confirmed tornadoes. Utilizing the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data as initial and boundary conditions, a series of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations were produced to isolate the impact of moisture on this outbreak. An unaltered control run was produced to closely replicate the environmental conditions of this outbreak. Additional simulations modify the moisture content of the initial environment to identify the influence this adjustment exerts on the event’s evolution. Moisture plays a considerable role in forecasting the onset and intensity of convective systems; thus, understanding this relationship further is essential to improving forecasting skill for similar outbreaks in the future