Foresight exercises as a tool for decision-making: the example of two case studies in health

Based on the report for the unit “Foresight Methods Analysis” of the PhD programme on Technology Assessment at the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, under the supervision of Prof. Dr. António B. MonizHealthcare systems are characterized by a rapid technology push and demand. Most decisions taken in this field usually are accompanied by risk and uncertainties. Due to financial constrains (common in every healthcare system), all decision must be made based on evidences of reliable studies. It may be not possible to know the future needs of healthcare systems in general, but it should be possible to foreseen them. This paper aims to shed some light on how prospective analysis can be an adding tool for the decision-making process, by enhancing exploratory and strategic dimension of planning and managing in a sensitive field such as healthcare. In order to provide for a simple overview on foresight exercises applied to health, this paper presents two study-cases that applied different methods. Since different foresight methods were applied, a comparative case-study analysis was applied, taking into consideration the following aspects of the exercise: aim, methodology, stakeholders and outputs. The specific objectives of this report are: to explore the usage of foresight methods applied to healthcare level in two different countries and therefore to understand if there are any similarities in the approach; and based on the analysis results, to develop recommendations for healthcare level decision-making in general. The results of this report can be useful for a better understanding on how foresight methods can be applied in healthcare and their importance. This article can help healthcare professionals, providing them a glimpse of some steps on the use of these foresight methods, so they can be more alert for foresight methodological framework and their practical applications. The knowledge on how to apply foresight methodology can be a differential and potential asset of a well-organized and informed institution, as well as an asset for a shared and participative strategic planning.António B. Moni