An international system under transformation : three ways to mute the security dilemma

The current set-up of the international system is transforming as a result of fluctuations in the geopolitical power-distribution and the intervening variable of globalization which brought about contradicting forces connecting the world through improved technology and at the same time dragging it apart by the weakening of state structures on the one hand and the creation of civilizational identities on the other. The result is an increased level of individual, national and international insecurity leading to the unconscious need of the global society to transform the current set-up of the system, which seems to be inadequate in the face of the new threats mankind has to face, as to create a more efficient and stable system structure. These requirements can be met by three archetypical systemic macro-models identified as the establishment of a federal world government, the upgrading of the competences of international regimes in a state-based unipolar mature anarchy system, and the creation of a balance of power system divided between civilizational blocs. The study revealed that the mechanisms of global integration required for the establishment of a world government are insufficient as to transform the system structure in accordance with that model. The verified experienced need for international joint actions on a number of selected issues, however, pointed in the direction of the forces of globalization which have created physical and mental interdependencies in the system. In light of the acknowledged interdependent relation between men, the state and the international system identified by Kenneth Waltz, this observation has led to the assumption that globalization might provide the link between the state and the international system which has been absent so far and which would act through the men-dimension. By doing so, globalization might, consequently, either act as a unifying force through the creation of a set of universal values and induce global normative-based cooperation in international regimes, or do the opposite and tear the system apart as a result of created pressures. The careful analysis of the two interdependent mechanisms through which globalization acts - the creation of physical and mental interdependencies - revealed that the very assumption of a universal set of values is utopian, and verified a solid trend towards the re-establishment of the sense of ethno-cultural affiliation, whereby the hierarchical level of a nation was found to increasingly shift upward towards that of a civilization. As for physical interdependencies, the existent global regimes required in the modern global system proved to generate power-determined coordination instead of cooperation, which could be found in low political issues only. Apart from that, the entire domain of the economy turned out to provide a destabilizing force being primarily responsible for the created systemic pressures as in line with the Marxist theory. Therefore, the establishment of a mature anarchy model was surprisingly found to depend primarily on the economic system and to overall resemble the model of Communism. By this, the trend towards which the system is currently drifting is the creation of a multipolar power system balanced between civilizational blocs and regulated by means of power-determined coordination. Such a system structure appeared reasonably stable in the short-run due to a sufficient number of participant blocs reducing the conflict potential, the presence of nuclear weapons allowing to adopt a defence-oriented security strategy and the overall rationality behind the prevalence of the defence over the offence in a global balance of power system. In the long run, however, the multipolar power system is likely to demise as have its predecessors due to a solidification of the existing alliances and a resulting decrease in the number of regime participants leading to an increased probability of conflict escalation requiring a new transformation. This logic is supported by the idea of historical cycles which periodically restructure the system