Simulation der langfristigen Entwicklung des europäischen Elektrizitätsmarktes

Due to the liberalization of the European electricity market, boundary conditions for market participants have changed significantly. In order to reach the long-term goal of a European internal market for electricity, strong political measures are necessary in all electricity markets within the European member states. Since security and efficiency of public power supply are both central requirements for all economic and industrial sectors, those attributes must not be endangered through political measures which aim for reaching the internal market. In the electricity industry, investment decisions are usually cost-effective for periods of several decades. As a consequence, inefficient investments cannot be corrected in the short-run. Political boundary conditions thus need to ensure adequate planning dependability for all market participants. Additionally, all future requirements for the electricity market need to be considered by political players. However, existing research studies often focus on static market models that are not able of identifying dynamic interactions between market components like generation and transmission of electricity, or focus on subsystems of the European electricity market like single countries or electricity exchanges. In this thesis, a new model based on game theory approaches is developed for the European electricity market. On the basis of this model, the impact of fundamental characteristics of the electricity market on the market outcome - e.g. bid prices of power suppliers - can be quantified. Afterwards, the improvements of the model that are required to enable realistic analyses of the real market are discussed. It is shown that a model that corresponds to all of those requirements is not eligible for analyzing the long-term development of the European electricity market, given the geographical area under consideration and the level of detail that is chosen in this thesis. As a consequence, a combined economical-technical model of the European electricity market is developed in this thesis additionally. This model enables comprehensive analyses of the dynamic development of the markt subject to decisions of political players and exogenous boundary conditions. The model is based on both a description of the European interconnected transmission system and a description of all power suppliers that are currently active in the European market. All power suppliers are modeled with their individual generation capacities and technologies. In order to guarantee a realistic evaluation of investment decisions of power suppliers, uncertainties of boundary conditions which are of relevance for those decisions are modeled by means of scenario trees. Thus the impact of political decisions and exogenous boundary conditions becomes transparent in sensitivity analyses. The behavior of power suppliers and potential investors again is input data for investment decisions of network operators that aim on developing the network corresponding to the expected future distribution of load and generation, given an adequate rate of return for invested capital. By using the model of the European electricity market and the market simulation tool which are both developed in this thesis, dynamic interactions between components of the system can be identified. Additionally, the impact of political boundary conditions on the development of the market can be evaluated. Furthermore, differences between short-term and long-term impacts of politico-economic measures can be quantified. Finally, possible applications and the capability of the developed models and methods are demonstrated in this thesis