Add to ORKGThe value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysis is questioned. When no model coincides with the data generation process, non-causal statistical devices may provide the best available forecasts: examples from recent work include intercept corrections and differenced-data VARs. However, the resulting models need have no policy implications. A 'paradox' may result if their forecasts induce policy changes which can be used to improve the statistical forecast. This suggests correcting statistical forecasts by using the econometric model's estimate of the 'scenario' change, and doing so yields reduced biases
To explain which methods might win forecasting competitions on economic time series, we consider for...
When an econometric model coincides with the mechanism generating the data in an unchanging world, t...
When the assumption of constant parameters fails, the in-sample fit of a model may be a poor guide t...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysi...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysi...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysi...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy ana-lys...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysi...
After reviewing the history of analyses of economic forecasting, the role of econometrics in improvi...
After reviewing the history of analyses of economic forecasting, the role of econometrics in improvi...
The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their e...
The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their e...
To explain which methods might win forecasting competitions on economic time series, we ...
The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their e...
Addresses the problems confronting forecasting in economies subject to structural breaks. Discusses ...
To explain which methods might win forecasting competitions on economic time series, we consider for...
When an econometric model coincides with the mechanism generating the data in an unchanging world, t...
When the assumption of constant parameters fails, the in-sample fit of a model may be a poor guide t...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysi...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysi...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysi...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy ana-lys...
The value of selecting the best forecasting model as the basis for empirical economic policy analysi...
After reviewing the history of analyses of economic forecasting, the role of econometrics in improvi...
After reviewing the history of analyses of economic forecasting, the role of econometrics in improvi...
The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their e...
The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their e...
To explain which methods might win forecasting competitions on economic time series, we ...
The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their e...
Addresses the problems confronting forecasting in economies subject to structural breaks. Discusses ...
To explain which methods might win forecasting competitions on economic time series, we consider for...
When an econometric model coincides with the mechanism generating the data in an unchanging world, t...
When the assumption of constant parameters fails, the in-sample fit of a model may be a poor guide t...