Understanding neighbourhood income poverty dynamics in England

This thesis advances the study of neighbourhood income poverty dynamics in England: neighbourhood change in low income areas; the dynamics of low income people within neighbourhoods; and the individual-level dynamics that drive aggregate neighbourhood change. The research questions ask whether income poor individuals are becoming more evenly spread across neighbourhoods in England, and what processes are associated with this change; what characterises poverty dynamics in disadvantaged neighbourhoods and what the implications are for area-based policy; and what demographic processes are associated with recent neighbourhood gentrification. The research is conducted in an empirical quantitative framework using analysis of administrative, census and panel survey data. Poverty is operationalised as a relative poverty measure and Lower Layer Super Output Areas are used as proxies for neighbourhoods. The thesis makes several methodological contributions including using administrative data to study income poverty dynamics in neighbourhoods and using propensity score matching for researching neighbourhood change processes. The findings show that the stability in the neighbourhood geography of poverty can mask some important dynamics. First, children and working age people living in low income households are becoming less concentrated in the highest poverty neighbourhoods; this is associated with the increasing propensity for low income households to be living in private rented housing. Second, the low income population living in deprived areas is shown to be highly dynamic. Deprived areas are characterised by a heightened risk of becoming poor and a higher risk of staying poor; but arguably the risk of becoming poor is more important in explaining high poverty rates. Third, in those neighbourhoods that have changed significantly there is stronger evidence that this proceeds via changes in the composition of inward migrants rather than an outward displacement of existing low income residents. A dynamic view of neighbourhood income poverty has the potential to improve the targeting and design of area-based initiatives, and provide a more nuanced picture of the nature of income poverty in disadvantaged areas.