We investigate proper scoring rules for continuous distributions on the real line. It is known that the log score is the only such rule that depends on the quoted density only through its value at the outcome that materializes. Here we allow further dependence on a finite number $m$ of derivatives of the density at the outcome, and describe a large class of such $m$-local proper scoring rules: these exist for all even $m$ but no odd $m$. We further show that for $m\geq2$ all such $m$-local rules can be computed without knowledge of the normalizing constant of the distribution
Most of the methods nowadays employed in forecast problems are based on scoring rules. There is a di...
We display pseudo-likelihood as a special case of a general estimation technique based on proper sco...
Proper and strictly proper scoring rules provide a rigorous method for evaluating the accuracy of a ...
We investigate proper scoring rules for continuous distributions on the real line. It is known that ...
A scoring rule is a loss function measuring the quality of a quoted probability distribution $Q$ for...
A scoring rule is a principled way of assessing a probabilistic forecast. The key requirement of a s...
Ascoring rule S(x; q) provides away of judging the quality of a quoted probability density q for a r...
In many applications of highly structured statistical models the likelihood function is intractable;...
In many applications of highly structured statistical models the likelihood function is in-tractable...
Suppose to express the uncertainty about an unobserved quantity $X \in \mathcal{X}$ by quoting a dis...
International audienceLes X1,..., Xn be a sequence of i.i.d. integer valued random variables and Hn ...
In this paper, we introduce a novel objective prior distribution levering on the connections between...
We give a new example for a proper scoring rule motivated by the form of Anderson-Darling distance o...
We display pseudo-likelihood as a special case of a general estimation technique based on proper sco...
The evaluation of probabilistic forecasts plays a central role both in the interpretation and in the...
Most of the methods nowadays employed in forecast problems are based on scoring rules. There is a di...
We display pseudo-likelihood as a special case of a general estimation technique based on proper sco...
Proper and strictly proper scoring rules provide a rigorous method for evaluating the accuracy of a ...
We investigate proper scoring rules for continuous distributions on the real line. It is known that ...
A scoring rule is a loss function measuring the quality of a quoted probability distribution $Q$ for...
A scoring rule is a principled way of assessing a probabilistic forecast. The key requirement of a s...
Ascoring rule S(x; q) provides away of judging the quality of a quoted probability density q for a r...
In many applications of highly structured statistical models the likelihood function is intractable;...
In many applications of highly structured statistical models the likelihood function is in-tractable...
Suppose to express the uncertainty about an unobserved quantity $X \in \mathcal{X}$ by quoting a dis...
International audienceLes X1,..., Xn be a sequence of i.i.d. integer valued random variables and Hn ...
In this paper, we introduce a novel objective prior distribution levering on the connections between...
We give a new example for a proper scoring rule motivated by the form of Anderson-Darling distance o...
We display pseudo-likelihood as a special case of a general estimation technique based on proper sco...
The evaluation of probabilistic forecasts plays a central role both in the interpretation and in the...
Most of the methods nowadays employed in forecast problems are based on scoring rules. There is a di...
We display pseudo-likelihood as a special case of a general estimation technique based on proper sco...
Proper and strictly proper scoring rules provide a rigorous method for evaluating the accuracy of a ...