Simulation of quality-adjusted survival in chronic diseases: an application in type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that measures of health-related quality of life can predict complications and mortality in patients with diabetes, even after adjustment for clinical risk factors. METHODS: The authors developed a simulation model of disease progression in type 2 diabetes to investigate the impact of patient quality of life on lifetime outcomes and its potential response to therapy. Changes in health utility over time are captured as a result of complications and aging. All risk equations, model parameter estimates, and input data were derived from patient-level data from the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) trial. RESULTS: Healthier patients with type 2 diabetes enjoy more life years, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and more life years free of complications. A 65-year-old patient at full health (utility = 1) can expect to live approximately 2 years longer and achieve 6 more QALYs than a patient at average health (utility = 0.8), given similar clinical risk factors. For patients with higher EQ-5D utility, the additional years lived without complications contribute more to longer life expectancy than years lived with complications. CONCLUSIONS: The authors have developed a model for progression of disease in diabetes that has a number of novel features; it captures the observed relationships between measures of quality of life and future outcomes, the number of states have been minimized, and it can be parameterized with just 4 risk equations. Underlying the simple model structure is important patient-level heterogeneity in health and outcomes. The simulations suggest that differences in patients' EQ-5D utility can account for large differences in QALYs, which could be relevant in cost-utility analyses