Shared and unique predictors of antisocial and substance use behavior among a nationally representative sample of South African youth

There are well-documented high prevalence rates of violence, aggression, and substance use in South Africa. We examined theoretically salient risk factors for antisocial behavior and substance use identified in high income countries (e.g., abuse and poverty; Shaw and Gross, 2008) and whether they had predictive effects among South African youth, for whom longitudinal research examining predictors of violence is lacking. We collected data from a large, high-risk longitudinal sample of youth from two provinces in South Africa, encompassing rural and urban sites (N = 3515; 97% retained at one year; 56.7% female; M age = 13.45). We assessed antisocial behavior and substance use using an adapted version of the CBCL-YSR and items from national surveys. Finally, we assessed risk factors using previously-validated indices of risk. Antisocial behavior and substance use were reciprocally related over time. Controlling for this overlap, as well as for relevant demographic covariates, child abuse predicted increases in antisocial behavior over time, and exposure to high levels of community violence predicted increases in both antisocial behavior and substance use one year later. The findings suggest that contextual risk factors underpinning etiological models of antisocial behavior and substance in high income countries are also relevant within the South African context. In particular, both harsh home and community environments were related to the development of youth antisocial and substance use behavior outcomes. We discuss the implications of these findings for preventative interventions to reduce youth engagement in risky antisocial and/or substance use behavior in South Africa