The Natural Gas Geopolitics of Turkey

This thesis investigates the natural gas geopolitics of Turkey and explores its interaction with the Turkish foreign policy making of the Justice and Development Party (JDP). Whilst Turkey does not have enough indigenous natural gas reserves to meet the existing and growing demand, the country does have great advantages, as it is located between the major supplier countries in the Middle East and Eurasia and is placed at the crossroads of an energy hungry European natural gas market. Therefore, the major aim of this research is to explore capacity building in the creation of relationships of interdependence between Turkey and supplier and demanding countries. Rather than introducing a dependency energy mechanism, this thesis offers the interaction capacity of the country with natural gas suppliers and consuming countries. In order to explain the relationship between politics and energy variables, the thesis establishes the theoretical framework of the study through the use of a pluralistic and integrated model, by combining International Relations Theories, the foreign policy making process of Turkey and a conceptualisation of the relations of energy interdependence. The descriptive analysis of Eurasia and the energy profile of Turkey provide detailed information about the existing energy trade and dependency relations in the Eurasian space. Hence, it explains the importance of Turkey in Europe’s diversification of energy corridors and Turkey’s natural gas market, which is considered to be the second biggest market in Europe. The significance and role of Turkey in the construction of pipeline projects (ITGI, TANAP, Nabucco, Nabucco-West and TAP) that go through Turkey to Europe, a route which is called the Southern Corridor, are analysed in the thesis. On the other hand, this thesis offers certain perspectives for the Caspian-Turkey-Europe natural gas corridor, focusing on Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan’s role in the natural gas trade for the energy security of Europe. Moreover, the natural gas potential of Iran, Iraq (including KRG), Qatar, Egypt and Israel, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are viewed as major natural gas sources for Turkey and Europe in this thesis. Turkey has historical and economic ties with the Caspian Sea and Middle East regions, which hold immense natural gas reserves that can be marketed to Turkey and to the European Union (EU). Mapping Turkey’s energy relations with consuming and producing countries, and defining Turkey’s geopolitical space, will not only help to develop its energy policy to secure its own energy consumption but also to manage interdependence relations between Eurasia and Europe. This is a new conceptualisation of energy supply and transit management of Turkey in the context of a new model called the Anatolian Gas Centre (AGS)