South Africa’s 2014 Elections: Implications for domestic politics and South Africa’s international relations

Summary • The ANC remains dominant in elections, despite the unpopularity of its leadership, massive internal infighting and the emergence of a new opposition party to the left, the EFF. The nature of ANC support is poorly understood. • The opposition parties – the DA and EFF - were unable to make significant inroads into the ANC’s support. Where the ANC has lost some support is among the urban black middle class. •The biggest threat to the ANC’s hold on power– and political stability in general – remains its ability to contain the fallout from intense factional struggles over party leadership positions, which will climax at the party’s 2017 leadership elections. These struggles are made more intense by patronage - based struggles at local levels. • The ANC is extremely unlikely to shift to the left politically but a serious challenge to the ANC could emerge if the trade unions end their alliance with the ANC and form a workers’ party, as they have threatened. • The ANC is likely to be emboldened by its election victory and pursue its role in conflict mediation in Africa more aggressively in the coming years. It will also campaign more vigorously for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and the FCO might be increasingly forced to take a clear stand on this issue. • Little else will change in South Africa’s policy orientation in the near future, although its fallout with Rwanda will continue to cause tension and instability within both the AU and Commonwealth