ABCD2 score predicts severity rather than risk of early recurrent events after transient ischemic attack.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The ABCD(2) score predicts the early risk of stroke after transient ischemic attack (TIA). However, data on the severity of recurrent events would also be useful. Do patients with high scores also have more severe early recurrent strokes, perhaps further justifying hospital admission? Do patients with low scores have a low early risk of recurrent TIA as well as recurrent stroke? METHODS: We completed a prospective, population-based study in Oxfordshire, England, of 500 consecutive patients presenting with TIA from April 1, 2002, by using multiple methods of case ascertainment (Oxford Vascular Study). Recurrent TIA, minor stroke, and major stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score >3 at the time of first assessment) were identified by face-to-face follow-up. Predictive value was expressed as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: Of 500 patients with TIA, 55 had a recurrent TIA (11.0%; 95% CI, 8.3% to 13.7%) and 50 had a recurrent stroke (10.0%; 95% CI, 7.5% to 12.0%) within 7 days. The ABCD(2) score was highly predictive of major recurrent stroke (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.80; 95% CI, 0.72 to 0.87, P<0.0001), weakly predictive of minor stroke (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.57; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.71, P=0.26), and inversely related to risk of recurrent TIA (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve=0.37; 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.44, P=0.001) (overall heterogeneity, P