Analysing the economic development impact of semi-arid lands, and mitigation through food-trade water resource decoupling

This research seeks to establish the relationship between semi-arid lands and national economic development, and the potential of food/agricultural trade to buffer semi-arid land vulnerability and mitigate water scarcity. It uses the theoretical concept of decoupling – the breaking of the link between national economic and population growth and the commensurate growth in use of water resources in food. It demonstrates that semi-arid lands do not appear to constrain economic take-off, as seen through the decoupling of growth from food needs. In comparing non-arid, arid and semi-arid economies, the research finds a similarity in behaviour between semi-arid and temperate lands, with arid economies tending to adopt greater and swifter dependence on food imports. Semi-arid economies tend to continue agricultural expansion. This finding suggests semi-arid economies could adopt food trade behaviour akin to those in arid economies to help reduce pressure on their semi-arid lands. Finally, the research demonstrates considerable scope for water-intelligent food trade to reduce national food-water demand, particularly reducing the intensity of internal blue water production from the PRISE economies