Future orientation and smoking cessation: secondary analysis of data from a smoking cessation trial.

AIMS: To examine the association between future orientation (how individuals consider and value outcomes in the future) and smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months post quit-date in individuals enrolled in a smoking cessation study. DESIGN: Cohort analysis of randomized controlled trial data. SETTING: UK primary care. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥18 years smoking ≥15 cigarettes daily, prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks. MEASUREMENTS: Future orientation was measured prior to quitting and at 4 weeks post-quitting using the Consideration of Future Consequences Scale. Smoking cessation at 4 weeks and 6 months was confirmed biochemically. Those lost to follow-up were assumed to not be abstinent. Potential confounders adjusted for were: age, gender, educational attainment, nicotine dependence and longest previous period quit. FINDINGS: A total of 697 participants provided data at baseline; 422 provided information on future orientation at 4 weeks. There was no evidence of an association between future orientation at baseline and abstinence at 4 weeks [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.05, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.80-1.38] or 6 months (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.60-1.20). There was no change in future orientation from baseline to 4 weeks and no evidence that the change differed between those who were and were not quit at 4 weeks (adjusted regression coefficient = -0.04, 95% CI = -0.16 to 0.08).CONCLUSIONS: In smokers who are prepared to quit in the next 2 weeks, the extent of future orientation is unlikely to be a strong predictor of quitting over 4 weeks or 6 months and any increase in future orientation following quitting is likely to be small.