Options in climate change adaptation, resilience and mitigation: evidence from Zambiaâs rural-rural migration

Least understood in human migration theory is the extent to which gradual and long-term environmental changes interact with other factors to trigger rural-rural movements. Research has tended to focus on rural-urban and cross-border movements based either on sudden environmental change drivers or economic differentials. Based on multi-disciplinary methods, and using climate, land cover, soil and/or land degradation as indicators of gradual and long-term environmental change, this research examines the extent to which these factors interact with other drivers of migration to trigger rural-rural movements in Zambia. Socio-economic attributes at household level including ways by which people recognise and respond to changes and/or variabilities are examined to measure vulnerability to environmental change and adaptive capacity potential. Results from social survey data suggest high vulnerability with low adaptive potential. However, vulnerability varies according to gender, migration status and area. Similarly, evidence from secondary environmental data for the 36-year period 1980 to 2016 shows that there are changes in all the environmental factors examined, although the magnitude of change varies between areas studied. Anthropogenic factors which appear to be the main cause of the observed changes also vary between areas. Findings show that gradual and long-term changes in environmental conditions can trigger rural-rural migration as these conditions were ranked highest in peopleâs perception of risk. It is thus concluded that gradual and long-term environmental factors contribute to rural-rural migration to a larger extent than economic or social factors. Furthermore, environmental factors also contribute to the spatial scales of rural-rural migration. However, while this type of migration is shown to be a working strategy as an adaptive response to environmental change, it is arguably a maladaptive response. With climatic patterns currently dynamic, there is little or no certainty in the economic benefits that may materialise from these movements. With a lack of evidence-based policy responses in governance, compounded by slow but long-term changes in ecological systems, multidimensional poverty is likely to jeopardize further the livelihood prospects of the rural poor, regardless of migration status, gender and location.