Revenue Forecasting in Municipal Budgets

The diploma thesis is focused on the analysis of prediction of tax revenues in conditions of cities Polička, Svitavy and Litomyšl. The main objective was to determine how surveyed municipalities predict their tax revenues, how accurate their estimates are and, in particular, whether it is possible to achieve more accurate results based on basic statistical methods. Minor objectives of this work were the description of how the individual municipalities forecast tax revenues, how the forecasts are integrated into the budget process and how this issue is dealt with in the United States. The results of the analysis showed that it is not possible to get more accurate predictions using basic quantitative models. It turned out that the quality of predictions of the statistical models was similar to the quality of the municipal estimates, even at forecasts of those tax revenues, where the deviation from the real revenue is quite high